双流机场低能见度天气预报方法研究   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

冯汉中陈永义  成永勤罗可生 《应用气象学报》2006,17(1):94-99

在信息量较大, 而预报对象与预报因子的关系又不清楚的状况下, 智能机器学习方法是解决这类问题的较好手段。利用1997—2001年成都站的常规探空资料和双流机场的地面观测资料, 使用支持向量机 (Support Vector Machines, 简称SVM) 方法, 选取多种核函数进行双流机场低能见度天气的预报建模试验。测试结果表明:以径向基函数和拉普拉斯函数构造的SVM预报模型实验效果最好, Ts评分分别为0.287和0.292, 远高于双流机场低能见度天气出现的频率 (0.155)。试验结果还表明:以径向基函数构造的SVM预报模型空报较多, 漏报较少; 而以拉普拉斯函数构造的SVM预报模型空报较少, 漏报较多。因此, 如果强调模型对低能见度天气预报的准确性, 则应采用以拉普拉斯函数构造的预报模型, 如果强调对低能见度天气的预防性, 则应采用以径向基函数构造的预报模型。  相似文献   

APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION     

张根生  费建芳  黄小刚  卢龙 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2006,12(2):179-185

The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.  相似文献   

Surface Ice Flow Velocity and Tide Retrieval of the Amery Ice Shelf using Precise Point Positioning   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

Xiaohong Zhang  Ole B. Andersen 《Journal of Geodesy》2006,80(4):171-176

Five days of continuous GPS observation data were collected in the frontal zone of the Amery ice shelf and subsequently post-processed using precise point position (PPP) technology based on precise orbit and clock products from the International GNSS service. The surface ice flow velocity of the observed point was derived from PPP to be 2.25 m/day toward the northeast with an azimuth of 41°. Major semi-diurnal and diurnal oceanic tide constituents could be recovered from the 5 days of PPP-derived height variations and compared well with a hydrodynamic ocean tide model. The PPP technique can replace double-difference GPS positioning in remote or hostile environments, and be used to retrieve the surface ice flow velocity without any reference station. Furthermore, the solution can be derived epoch-by-epoch with accuracy in the centimeters to decimeter range.  相似文献   

 四川三星堆遗址多源遥感研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

洪友堂  田淑芳  陈建平  江明 《国土资源遥感》2006,17(4):33-35

运用遥感考古技术，通过对卫星和航空遥感图像的处理、解译及相互映证，对三星堆的古河道、古城池进行了全面调查，发现了马牧河由南往北的多期古河道及一些未曾被发现的古城遗址，得出三星堆古城池分为内外二层的结论。  相似文献   

全球地幔垂直流动速度研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

程先琼  朱介寿  蔡学林 《地球物理学报》2006,49(4):1022-1028

用高分辨率地震体波速度成像以及相关的地球物理资料，计算地幔垂直流动形式及流动速度，得到全球地幔流垂直运动模式.从全球尺度来看，地幔流基本可划分为以下几个区域：欧亚大陆—澳大利亚、北美洲—南美洲为两个大规模下降流区域，西印度洋—非洲及大西洋、中南太平洋及东太平洋为两个大规模地幔上升流区域.地幔上升流起源于核幔边界，主要表现在地幔中部和上地幔下部.地幔垂直流动速度约每年1～4cm.地幔流动对地表板块运动、海洋中脊和中隆、俯冲带和碰撞带的分布起着控制作用.地幔上升流与地表现代热点有密切关系.从东亚尺度看，地幔流大体分为三个区域：东亚边缘裂谷系和西太平洋边缘海为上升流、西伯利亚地幔深度表现为物质下降流、青藏高原—缅甸—印度尼西亚特提斯俯冲带地幔下降流，这三个区域地幔流动与地表的西太平洋构造域、亚洲构造域和特提斯构造域相吻合.勾勒出南海地区构造特征：从上到下的大体结构是上部呈“工"字型、中间为圆柱型、底部呈盾形的地幔上升流.  相似文献   

非均匀介质热蠕变流动的数值求解   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

刘洁  刘启元  宋惠珍 《地球物理学报》2006,49(4):1029-1036

针对非均匀介质中热蠕变流动问题，给出了有限单元方法与网格－粒子方法联合求解新技术，即有限单元方法求解欧拉网格节点上的未知量，分布于单元内部作为物质成分标记的粒子反映变形过程.有限元法求解动量方程和连续性方程时引入了速度场和压力场等阶插值的压力场稳定的Petrov Galerkin方法，求解能量方程时采用了流线迎风Petrov Galerkin方法，网格－粒子算法中采用双线性插值与有限单元插值函数对应.有限单元计算与网格－粒子计算相对独立，两种方法计算的数据通过有限单元节点传递.同时，实现了三角形单元的算法和程序，解决了复杂结构条件下不规则网格计算的问题.通过经典方腔热对流问题验证了程序，给出了不规则形态块体沉降算例，并分析了数值解的稳定性.  相似文献   

垂直上升管中气液两相流电导波动信号的混沌特性分析   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文

金宁德  郑桂波  胡凌云 《地球物理学报》2006,49(5):1552-1560

首先以Lorenz混沌方程产生的非线性时间序列为例，讨论了在不同时间序列长度下各种延迟时间算法对噪声的适用性.研究发现，采用C_C算法计算延迟时间的鲁棒性强.在此基础上，给出了垂直上升管中气水两相流电导波动信号混沌表征结果，发现在较低水相表观速度时，随着气相表观速度增加，泡状流及混状流动力学特性变得愈加复杂，而段塞流动力学特性受液相表观速度影响较大；在较高水相表观速度时，随着气相表观速度增加，当流型从泡状流向段塞流转变时，气液两相流动力学特性变得相对简单.但是，由于受液相湍流作用影响，段塞流的动力学特性表现出了涨落现象，呈现不稳定性，当流型从段塞流向混状流转变时，气液两相流动力学特性则变得愈加复杂.研究结果表明：基于电导波动信号的混沌分析可以较好地表征气液两相流流型变化，是理解流型转变机理及其动力学演变特性的有用工具.  相似文献   

长白山天池火山造盾熔岩流流动速度的恢复与溢流性灾害讨论          下载免费PDF全文

靳晋瑜  魏海泉  盘晓东  刘强 《地震地质》2006,28(3):381-390

天池火山东北侧造盾玄武岩可划分出8个流动单元,熔岩流的流动距离主要集中在30~50km,熔岩流宽度以5km左右为主。通过由野外调查获得的天池火山东北侧不同熔岩流单元的地表坡度、熔岩流厚度等,结合温度、密度与黏度等物理参数,按照熔岩流速度公式恢复的头道组和早白山组0.5m厚晶体含量5%的玄武岩熔岩流流速集中在0~1m/s之间。晶体含量为30%、厚度为0.5m的晚白山组和老房子小山组玄武岩熔岩流的流动速度集中在0~0.12m/s之间。厚度增大至2m左右,晶体含量不变的头道组和早白山组的玄武岩熔岩流流动速度可加快至11m/s。天池火山2m厚的碱性熔岩流在12h内达到或接近了它的最远距离,而各组内2m厚拉斑玄武岩熔岩流在20h内接近了最远距离。0.5m厚的熔岩流在10d内接近最大距离。50km是预计的熔岩流长度,在未来制定减灾措施时,可将此长度作为重要依据之一。天池火山熔岩流灾害主要表现为熔岩流动时对房屋建筑、农田、道路、林地、电站的毁坏,火灾及大量的人口伤亡  相似文献   

Integration of transfer function model and back propagation neural network for forecasting storm sewer flow in Taipei metropolis     

Chih-Chiang Lu  Chu-Hui Chen  Tian-Chyi J. Yeh  Cheng-Mau Wu  I-Fang Yau 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(1-2):6-22

Typhoons and storms have often brought heavy rainfalls and induced floods that have frequently caused severe damage and loss of life in Taiwan. Our ability to predict sewer discharge and forecast floods in advance during storm seasons plays an important role in flood warning and flood hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop an integrated model (TFMBPN) for forecasting sewer discharge that combines two traditional models: a transfer function model and a back propagation neural network. We evaluated the integrated model and the two traditional models by applying them to a sewer system of Taipei metropolis during three past typhoon events (NARI, SINLAKU, and NAKR). The performances of the models were evaluated by using predictions of a total of 6 h of sewer flow stages, and six different evaluation indices of the predictions. Finally, an overall performance index was determined to assess the overall performance of each model. Based on these evaluation indices, our analysis shows that TFMBNP yields accurate results that surpass the two traditional models. Thus, TFMBNP appears to be a promising tool for flood forecasting for the Taipei metropolis sewer system. For publication in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Analysis.  相似文献   

The dynamics of a channel-fed lava flow on Pico Partido volcano, Lanzarote     

Duncan Woodcock  Andrew Harris 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2006,69(2):207-215

A short length of channel on Pico Partido volcano, Lanzarote, provides us the opportunity to examine the dynamics of lava flowing in a channel that extends over a sudden break in slope. The 1–2-m-wide, 0.5–2-m-deep channel was built during the 1730–1736 eruptions on Lanzarote and exhibits a sinuous, well-formed channel over a steep (11° slope) 100-m-long proximal section. Over-flow units comprising smooth pahoehoe sheet flow, as well as evidence on the inner channel walls for multiple (at least 11) flow levels, attest to unsteady flow in the channel. In addition, superelevation is apparent at each of the six bends along the proximal channel section. Superelevation results from banking of the lava as it moves around the bend thus causing preferential construction of the outer bank. As a result, the channel profile at each bend is asymmetric with an outer bank that is higher than the inner bank. Analysis of superelevation indicates flow velocities of ~8 m s^–1. Our analysis of the superelevation features is based on an inertia-gravity balance, which we show is appropriate, even though the down-channel flow is in laminar flow. We use a viscosity-gravity balance model, together with the velocities calculated from superelevation, to obtain viscosities in the range 25–60 Pa s (assuming that the lava behaved as a Newtonian liquid). Estimated volume fluxes are in the range 7–12 m³ s^–1. An apparent down-flow increase in derived volume flux may have resulted from variable supply or bulking up of the flow due to vesiculation. Where the channel moves over a sharp break in slope and onto slopes of ~6°, the channel becomes less well defined and widens considerably. At the break of slope, an elongate ridge extends across the channel. We speculate that this ridge was formed as a result of a reduction in velocity immediately below the break of slope to allow deposition of entrained material or accretion of lava to the channel bed as a result of a change in flow regime or depth.  相似文献